The Wind Blows Harder where the Sun Don’t Shine

Last week the UCC Environmental Society hosted a public information evening on fracking. Speakers were:

Jeremy Gilbert, BP’s chief petroleum engineer from 1989-2001, and now managing director of Barrelmore Ltd in West Cork;

Dr. Aedin McLoughlin and Liam Breslin of Good Energy Alliance Ireland, (GEAI) a Leitrim-based anti-fracking activist group.

Bernie Connolly from the Cork Environmental Forum chaired the discussion.

Gilbert- who regulars here will remember from his chapter in Peak Oil Personalities gave a very solid technical discussion of fracking based on his 37 years in the oil industry. “Fracking should be welcomed… shale gas is much better than coal.”

He told us that the technology has been around for over 60 years, with 1.1million wells- oil and gas- drilled worldwide. He referred to the chemicals used, saying they include innocuous viscosifiers made from Guar Gum, and others being common under the average kitchen sink.

As regards sealing the wells, we have been successfully cementing oil and gas wells for over 150 years. There are fears of the methane escaping, but apart from the fact that this would lose the companies money of course, Gilbert emphasized that this happens naturally all the time: hydrocarbons are lighter than the water that fills the pore space and so over time migrates upwards- this is how the tar sands of Alberta have been formed over the ages.

In terms of public impact, Gilbert had himself been involved with the development of the Wytch Farm Oil Field, south of Poole Harbor in Dorset. The same techniques have been used there for many years, albeit in less tight formations, but while there was tremendous opposition at the time, by working with the public the company was able to address their concerns- at considerable extra cost to themselves- and Jeremy says that today, 20 years later, the vast majority of residents in the area are unaware of the development, and that it would be hard to even find any sign of it (Wikipaedia states it is mainly hidden in a forest).

He concluded his presentation with a stern reminder: the default is coal.

Dr. McGloughlin spoke next, running through the usual expected catalogue of impacts, and taking issue with Gilbert’s assurances of this being an established technology with proven safety record: water contamination, leaking wells, no acceptable disposal route for produced water, compulsory purchase orders, massive number of truck journeys, visual impact across lovely Leitrim, the need for a moratorium on drilling until a Health Impact Assessment is done. McGloughlin lives in Leitrim herself and made no secret of the fact that this ia a local NIMBY issue, but wants us all to be afraid: the same companies are also looking at coal seam gas with fully half of Ireland being targeted for one or the other.

The climate change issue was mentioned, highly ironic since the US shale revolution has already lead to significant CO2 reductions there through substituting coal with gas.

Instead, Good Energy Alliance Ireland advocates renewables: wind, solar, tidal, hydro: anything but fracking. McGloughlin made a couple of eye-brow-raising claims on this: firstly that that Leitrim is already self-sufficient in energy from renewable sources, presumably mainly wind- which seems unbelievable (renewables always need some back-up, usually gas) and with no mention being made of the burgeoning anti-wind movement that is growing up in Ireland as elsewhere. She also talked solar up to the point of claiming that the technology has improved so much that “you dont even need sun anymore” for it to work- truly fantastic!

Some good questions from the floor put pressure on McGloughlin and Breslin to say what assurances would they accept that fracking would be done safely? It all comes down to trust in the authorities: but then, do we trust the wind companies? we do of course trust regulatory authorities in many other areas of our lives, because we have to, and despite sometimes failing,on the whole they do a good job it would seem. A geography student was concerned about getting a job (imagine!);

Gilbert repeated very strongly that if so many other countries are apparently happy to go ahead, and if we are otherwise unconcerned about where our gas comes from, why can it not be done safely in Ireland? Breslin repeated something like, if it can be done safely, why is he getting so many reports about people’s dogs getting asthma from living near frack sites- Jeremy Gilbert objected that this is an industry he has spent nearly 40 years of his working life around- “and he looks healthy!” called a voice from the back of the room: into his 70s and cutting a powerful figure of about 6ft 6, he certainly does.

Overall, good fun but the anti-frackers came out looking pretty out of touch with the informed audience- “we need jobs! we need energy!”- and frankly clueless next to a seasoned industry man.

The whole issue is very topical across the water as well of course and just the night before there had been an equally entertaining live debate on fracking between Josh “Flaming faucet” Fox of Gasland fame and Ted Nordhaus of the Breakthrough Institute, hosted by Salon.

Fox is also living in the heart of fracking country surrounded by thousands of shale gas wells. I have no doubt that this must be disruptive- but while the two participants traded studies on just how much methane leakage there actually is (Nordhaus adamant that the clear scientific consensus is very much on the low side) the key issue came down once again to: what do we use instead?

Josh, please tell me how your going to fix the intermittence problem with renewables. Or tell me you are pro-nuclear. If not then anti-gas = pro-coal.

Perhaps giving McGloughlin her cue for the “solar without sun” comment in Cork the next night, Fox comes up with a gem:

Well, it is true that the sun doesn’t always shine and the wind doesn’t always blow. But based on physical laws of nature, the wind is blowing harder when the sun isn’t shining. By bundling renewable resources we can solve the problem.

Nice try, but no there is no such physical law unfortunately, nor do we currently have large-scale compressed-air storage technology which he then goes on to talk about as an “alternative”, which would not be relevant anyway in terms of replacing gas for electricity.

In response to my surprised tweet about this, @pdiff1 offered an explanation:

That pretty much says it all. Fox never did come back to answer his position on nuclear; but anti-fracking activists share in common with the anti-nuclear movement (often one and the same of course) a complete lack of understanding of the fundamental limitations of diffuse renewables. Once that is exposed, as both Fox and McGloughlin showed themselves only too happy to do for us, the rest of their position is revealed as just hot air.

Golden Rice and the abuse of Science

After a fruitless discussion with Paul Kingsnorth last week on my post Rape of the Earth the venerable Deep Ecologist, anti-humanist and anarcho-primitivist author went into meltdown this morning, firing off ten irate tweets at me – and then blocking me.
I cannot embed them as I am blocked, so I have copied some of them here:

@Skepteco Obviously I won’t be reading your latest stream of drivel. But I’ve come to some conclusions about your politics.

@Skepteco Your refusal to engage, your dishonesty and your deliberate manipulation of facts give the lie to your claim to be a ‘pragmatist.’

@Skepteco I think you’re actually a nihilist. You’ve nothing to offer but self-righteous bile and intolerance.

@Skepteco In that respect, you’re a fascist too – you want to eliminate everyone who doesn’t conform to your narrow worldview.

@Skepteco Of course, fascism is a sign of insecurity. I wonder what you’re running from?

@Skepteco But whatever it is, it’s not my business. Good luck with your campaign to liquidate the deviants. I’m off to write a novel.

In the comments on my post Kingsnorth takes me to task for my “silly ‘science versus ideology’ confection” :

this is one of the weirdest and most sinister aspects of the neo-green approach. It begins by (rightly) criticising green pseudo-science but very quickly segues into a claim that the ONLY valid approach to green issues is a scientific one. This effectively excludes morality, ethics, epistemology, culture and politics from the debate – conveniently for you, because those things are complex, value-laden and often subjective. There are no numbers attached to them. But they are the stuff of life.

At the same time though he quotes his own “proper” scientists, not to contradict any specific scientific issue but to claim authority for the argument that what I am presenting as “science” is really ideology.

In this he shares a lot of common ground with Chris Smaje who I took to task on Lynas’ Oxford speech on GMOs.

Like Kingsnorth, Smaje’s main gripe is with “scientism”: an ideological stance that presumes Science and its High Priests the Scientists to have complete ownership of the Truth, ruling over the ignorant minions to further the Cause of Progress and Technology.

Smaje now has a new post out in which he says of Lynas

his talk had very little to do with actual science, and a lot to do with invoking the word “science” as a kind of religious incantation to justify his views….

I was prompted to post on Lynas’s talk because of how blatantly rhetorical his appeal to the concept of “science” was. But as a social scientist like Lynas, I don’t have the biological background always to be able to sort the scientific wheat from the chaff in everything I read about GM. One might think that there should be public institutions employing disinterested scientists to do this on behalf of laymen like me. But that would turn scientists into priests (ironically something of a problem in contemporary society, as demonstrated in Lynas’s lecture) – and many of the questions about GM are not scientific ones anyway.

Is this true? Well, certainly Lynas makes “discovering science” the core reason for his conversion; but there is no doubt what he is talking about:

I’d assumed that GM benefited only the big companies. It turned out that billions of dollars of benefits were accruing to farmers needing fewer inputs.

I’d assumed that Terminator Technology was robbing farmers of the right to save seed. It turned out that hybrids did that long ago, and that Terminator never happened.

I’d assumed that no-one wanted GM. Actually what happened was that Bt cotton was pirated into India and roundup ready soya into Brazil because farmers were so eager to use them.

I’d assumed that GM was dangerous. It turned out that it was safer and more precise than conventional breeding using mutagenesis for example; GM just moves a couple of genes, whereas conventional breeding mucks about with the entire genome in a trial and error way.

But what about mixing genes between unrelated species? The fish and the tomato? Turns out viruses do that all the time, as do plants and insects and even us – it’s called gene flow.

But this was still only the beginning. So in my third book The God Species I junked all the environmentalist orthodoxy at the outset and tried to look at the bigger picture on a planetary scale.

All these issues are testable hypotheses; they are what “science” with a small “s” is really good at: and they are all issues where it is easy to find examples of where activists abuse the evidence, use junk studies etc.. This is all well known and par for the course.

“Science” with a big “S” on the other hand is what Smaje and Kingsnorth are complaining about- a slavish following of Science as dogma, or obeisance to the authority of scientific establishments even when the issue is more one of policy than verifiable evidence; and along with this, a religious faith in the benefits of Progress that Science is supposed to deliver.

It is important to clarify which is which because they can often get mixed up. But in terms of ideology, the converse is also true- a suspicion of both science and Science- which comes from mixing them up- and a conviction that the kind of solutions offered by science is not the right one can also be ideological.

Take the case of Golden Rice. In his Oxford talk, Lynas slates Greenpeace for their latest scare-mongering campaign over the children who they claimed were “human guinea-pigs” – despite no harm came to them in trials to test the effectiveness of the vitamin-D enhancement. Greenpeace have been opposed to Golden Rice since at least 2001. As Norm Benson points out, Dr. Ingo Potrykus said to Greenpeace in that year, “If you plan to destroy test fields to prevent responsible testing and development of Golden Rice for humanitarian purposes, you will be accused of contributing to a crime against humanity. Your actions will be carefully registered and you will, hopefully, have the opportunity to defend your illegal and immoral actions in front of an international court.”

Smaje argues that Golden Rice has not been tested in the field, it is not cost-effective, there are better alternatives, no-one can be sure that the traits will remain stable over time- in other words, he takes the Greenpeace story hook line and sinker. But he refuses to condemn them for their tactics in China because:

I won’t be posting anything that singles out Greenpeace for criticism because if I were to draw up an indictment sheet of organisations that are culpable for inflicting global misery Greenpeace would still come pretty low down on my list.

So why is he singling Lynas out for criticism rather than the IMF or the WTO himself? Instead, he gives Greenpeace a free pass on their manipulative tactics, and claims that “on the question of moral repugnance my feeling is that you’re using the emotive issue of children’s deaths to spin your own particular line on GM”- even though it is clearly Greenpeace who played on the emotive issue of children being used as guinea-pigs- and there really is evidence and good reason to believe that delaying and withholding this technology has cost lives.

Meanwhile, according to Jon Entine

While Golden Rice was developed over ten years at the miniscule total cost of $2.6 million, in an extraordinary public-private partnership using funds donated by the Rockefeller Foundation, the Swiss Federation, the National Science Foundation, and the European Union, Greenpeace International alone annually spends about $270 million annually, and upwards of $7 million each year specifically dedicated to burying Golden Rice and any other food or crop developed using biotechnology.

So much for “cost-benefit”- the people screaming loudest about this pouring vast sums and energy into trying to bury Golden Rice. The campaigners and the activists and the petition-signers who support them are not achieving the amelioration of VAD by other means; in fact the only reason it is even an issue is because it is GMO. If there was rice fortification by some other breeding method no-one would be paying a blind bit of notice. This is about one thing and one thing only: banning or hindering GMOs for political reasons.

(Lynas interviewed Professor Federoff on his blog recently who had this to say on the matter: “The simple answer to this is that the continued GM activism against “golden rice,” especially the recent efforts to discredit the trials that were being carried in China, is a humanitarian abomination.”)

All Smaje’s arguments amounts to is a distrust of science and an appeal to the Precautionary Principle. We cannot know for absolute certain how effective Golden Rice will be so let’s put all our energy into stopping it. The ideology comes first; if it is found to be “cost-efficient” something else will be found wrong.

So this is not really about countering the High Priests of Science- both Kingsnorth and Smaje both invoke their own High Priests, just as homeopaths are fond of decrying science as “just another way of knowing” and then popping out their own cherry-picked bogus study themselves.

What is really interesting is that this mistrust of scientific institutions is shared by another group who my protagonists on the Golden Rice issue would probably prefer not to feel aligned with: climate skeptics.

One of the main objections to the way climate science is translated into policy is that it is done to serve a political and ideological agenda, including of course massively increasing the power and funding of those scientific institutions. This is why I think it is a mistake for Lynas to equate climate skepticism with anti-GMO activism. While Smaje and Kingsnorth confuse Science with science on GMOs, most climate skeptics do not take issue with CO2 as a greenhouse gas, or that warming has been happening, but with the policies that are proposed to deal with the issue, often backed by incorrigible scare-mongering of exactly the same end-of-the-word kind that Greenpeace and other anti-GMO groups indulge in.

Smaje and others like him are suspicious of the scientific bodies who they feel promote GMOs for political reasons, while they would have lot in common with those who call for radical responses to climate change because it suits the same agenda: roll back industrial society, scale back on technological fixes which are only going to make things worse: that is why nuclear is so often opposed as well, despite being an obvious low-carbon alternative to fossil fuels.

Climate change is the penance we get for hurting Gaia and living beyond our means.

The easiest and also the most prominent target for this kind of concern about how far some scientific institutions have lost the run of themselves in over-stepping the boundary between good verifiable science and Science pressed into the service of an ideology has got to be Paul Ehrlich, particularly with his recent adoption as a Fellow of the Royal Society. In fact, when reading through Kingsnorth’s bleak and anti-humanistic dirges he reminds me of noone more than Ehrlich. In other words, the charge of Scientism and fears of unaccountable Scientific institutions gaining too much power and influence is much more applicable to the ideology Kingsnorth would support- the ideology in fact that has made him- than what he fights against.

Kingsnorth was keen to equate me with Delingpole- “I’d suggest you contact the commissioning editor of Telegraph Blogs in the UK. They’d snap you up there and you could foam away in great company – James Delingpole, Brendan O’Neill, Norman Tebbitt – and with a far higher readership.” (anyone from the Telegraph reading this?!)- and accused me of getting my history from “Right-wing Think tanks”- when I was actually referring to Staudenmaier of the Institute for Social Ecology, if anything a Left-wing “Think-tank”. (Lynas also got mixed up when reviewing Delingpole’s book as I pointed out this time last year.)

Yet he and Delingpole have more in common than either of them might be comfortable with. Here is Kingsnorth on windfarms:

I notice that the greenies are now changing their tune on wind farms. Where before the bat-chomping eco crucifixes were spun as a vital part of “energy security”, they are now being repositioned as a kind of carbon-friendly bolt-on which is nice to have around and generally acts as an occasional substitute for fossil fuel when conditions are right.

And here is Delingpole:

The prospect of raping some of our last wild places in order to provide 6% of our energy – profiting large corporations in the process – is not something that anyone daring to call themselves an environmentalist should be supporting. Even if you believe that tackling climate change is such a vital issue that it should override all else, projects like this remain a drop in the ocean in any case, their negative impacts far outweighed by their benefits.

They sound so similar I think it would be entirely forgivable to get them mixed up ;)

Green for Me Talk for UCC Enviro Soc

I had an enjoyable evening at the Green for Me event at UCC Environmental Society on Tuesday where I gave a talk along with Dan Boyle of the Green Party and well-known biologist and TV/radio presenter Eanna ni Lamhna as part of their Green Week.

The theme given us for our talks was “My Reasons for Being Green.”

Eanna spoke first, but I had already got into a discussion with her about population as soon as she came into the lecture hall, pointing out that birth rates are declining everywhere, and hurriedly added in a few graphs to prove my point; her own graph was I felt somewhat misleading in that it showed only the dramatic population expansion of the past hundred years, without any context or explanation that this phase finished some 20 years ago.

Update: As Patrick Hayes writes here in response to David Attenborough’s recent Malthusian remarks, even sub-Saharan Africa has seen a massive drop in birthrates:

But as Slate has observed, it’s not just the most developed nations: ‘From 1960 to 2009, Mexico’s fertility rate tumbled from 7.3 live births per woman to 2.4, India’s dropped from six to 2.5, and Brazil’s fell from 6.15 to 1.9. Even in sub-Saharan Africa, where the average birthrate remains a relatively blistering 4.66, fertility is projected to fall below replacement level by the 2070s.’

All of which is bad news for Attenborough and his Malthusian ilk, as it reveals that what lurks behind their doom-mongering is prejudice rather than fact. That becomes increasingly evident when you hear headline-generating comments, such as those Attenborough made recently to the Radio Times: ‘We keep putting on programmes about famine in Ethiopia; that’s what’s happening. Too many people there. They can’t support themselves – and it’s not an inhuman thing to say. It’s the case.’

Too many people in Ethiopia? This is a country which, according to the World Bank, has a mere 83 people per square kilometre. This is the same as Serbia, and there aren’t mass starvations there. At 196 people per square kilometre, Switzerland has a far higher population density than Ethopia, but people aren’t starving there. Nor in Japan, where there are 350 people per square kilometre, or the Netherlands, which has 493 people per square kilometre.

She then went on to talk about climate change and supported the issues around this with two more rather misleading slides, one of polar bears and one of deserts. Polar bears are of course the poster child of climate change and have been used to very good propaganda effects since before Al Gore; but the reality seems very different- many polar bear populations are increasing, they seem remarkably adaptable to declining sea ice.
A much greater threat to bears in the Arctic than global warming is hunting.

So bears polar bears are probably an eye-catching but bad example of the effects of climate change- so far at least. Similarly, desertification also is more complex than just laying it at the feet of CO2 emissions- de-forestsation from human activity being another obvious cause, with underlying poverty often being the problem.

Eanna then wnet onto talk about renewable energy- “we have very little renewable energy- and yet the wind blows all the time!” Yes, it’s a no-brainer: humans, especially Irish humans in a country that has been hailed as the Saudi Arabia of wind- choose to use Polar-Bear murdering fossil fuels when they could just switch to clean wind.

Unfortunately, one of the major draw-backs with wind is that it does not in fact blow all the time even in Ireland, as anyone who has lived off-grid with wind-power as I have done in the past will tell you: plenty of calm still “soft” days Ireland where you get effectively no power from wind, no matter how many turbines you might have.

Even a super-grid covering the whole of Europe would not solve the problem- there is really quite dramatic indetermittency issues Europe-wide as well. For this reason, wind can never on its own replace fossil fuels or nuclear, and as another graph of Eanna’s showed quite well, renewables currently only supply a tiny percentage of energy- for well-understood reasons that are more to do with the laws of physics and cost than anything else.

More controversially, Eanna then went onto discuss waste, asking why dont we have have incinerators- a local hot-potato. “You can’t even mention them- they are considered as bad as GMOs!” The last time I had seen Eanna was at the potato day last year in Skibbereen, where she had had done an admirable job of myth-busting about the GE potato trials that started last year.

She then commented that at the protest meetings on incinerators she had been to, at the break about a third of the protestors went out to smoke!

Eanna finished her entertaining talk by admonishing us to eat only food that is in season and plant trees to help combat climate change.

I was up next, and began by staking out my credentials as a back-to-the-lander. While preparing the presentation I had in fact dug up photos of a commune I had lived in in the 1980s on the Welsh borders.

This is a photo of the Earthworm Housing Co-op from 1990, possibly when I was still actually living there.Brings back memories- many of which make me cringe!

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I then discussed my involvement with the Peak Oil movement, and how my views had changed as time went on and the expected collapse failed to materialise, and the new energy story became one of the Golden Age of Gas.

I then used Stewart Brand’s Four Environmental Heresies to frame my new perspective on “Being Green.”

-population growth stablising and the world is not over-populated;
-cities are green
-nukes are green
-genetic engineering is green

I then gave a brief explanation of the Environmental Transition- the idea that environmentalism is a product of wealth and industrial growth rather than a reaction to it, and told the story from Shellenberger and Nordhaus’ book Breakthrough about the fires on the Cuyahoga River:cuyahoga_fire650

In June 22nd 1969 Time Magazine showed this photo of burning oil on Cuyahoga River with the caption
“The Price of Optimism” and it became emblematic of start of the US Environmental Movement.

The problem was, the photo was not from the 1969 fire, which has burned out in half-an-hour before the Time photographer could get there- but from an earlier and much more severe fire from 1952. In fact, there had been fires on the Cuyahoga river for a hundred years, some of them burning for days and causing loss of life: but the society had not yet reached a level of wealth and development- which would support universities with Environmental Societies- until much later. Poor people are not generally environmentalists- they have more expressing concerns, but once society has a critical mass of relatively affluent educated people with time on their hands, then industry is compelled to clean up its act.

I concluded my presentation with a quotation from Daniel Botkin’s book The Moon in the Nautilus Shell.:

Our perspective, ironically in this scientific age, depends on ancient myths and deeply buried beliefs. To gain a new view, one necessary to deal with global environmental problems, we must break free of old assumptions and myths about nature and ourselves while building on the scientific and technical advances of the past.

Dan Boyle followed me and began by expressing surprise to find himself having to defend the broad thrust of the environmental movement from the past few decades. He began by emphasising his agreement that Luddism is false, and that greens depend upon science and technology;

but seemed to struggle to hide some exasperation at my reference to Lomborg: “It is NOT the case that you burn your hydrocarbons and then clean up afterwards”- rather missing the point about the environmental transition, because of course that is precisely what the greens have been doing, otherwise we would never have embarked on industrialisation in the first place: the greens would have stopped us!

Dan’s main points seemed to be a bunch of Green Herrings: the supposed rallying cries of “bigger faster more” are the problem; untrield technology is dangerous and we should proceed with greater caution;
while his reference to dangers of the “chemical soup” used in frakking, and from “cross-contamination” from genetic engineering belie his claim to environmentalism being underpinned by science. Not to mention his suggestion that we can have “smaller and more efficient” wind turbines- surely not? To become more efficient, wind turbines can only do one thing: get bigger, due to well-understood laws of physics concerning wind-speed increasing to the square of the altitude/height and rotor span’s ability to collect the diffuse wind energy from a given space.

In the discussion and questions afterwards I was challenged quite strongly on nuclear waste issues, and general “Pandora’s Box” concerns about whether naughty humans should really be trusted with technology.

Dan Boyle made the very good point that at a meeting he had attended recently in the midlands concerning the proposed giant wind farm there, anti-wind activists used the same rhetoric and alarmism used by the anti-nuclear lobby, even including the threat of radiation- from wind turbines!

A popular theme seemed to be that rather than constantly striving for more energy sources, we should just use less. “Let’s turn out the lights then!” I said looking up to the ceiling at the dozens of lights that were probably consuming more energy that evening than I would at home in a year. My personal experience of living off the grid was apparently not persuasive however, and when I pointed out that there are still a couple of billion people without electricity at all in the world, I was told, “They can just use the Gravity Light!”

“Would you use one?”

“Well, it would be great for an outdoor light or something.”

Indeed it would, and for those without electric lights of any kind, this remarkable invention will surely be a wonderful boon. But for those who think that we can or will do anything other than make cosmetic changes in our energy usage, that “powerdown” can in some way substitute for cheap reliable electricity supply, should contemplate what life might be like if one or two gravity lights is all you ever have as a light supply, for the rest of your lives, ie without development.

Several people came up to me afterwards and thanked me for a thought-provoking perspective, while others took a more conventional green- perspective, concerned more about a presumed loss of contact with Nature, the virtues of the simple life and the insanity of endless growth rather than addressing the concerns of the poor. “We are all too greedy in this country!” proclaimed Eanna at one point.

But as Colin McInnes shows in this award-winning essay, growth is not just a matter of extraction and consumption, but is also about complexity:

While innovation-driven growth has delivered immense improvements to the human condition, it is also the means through which human needs can be gradually decoupled from the environment. Growth emerges from productivity, doing more with less. For example, new additive manufacturing technologies, so-called ‘3D printers’, look set partly to replace the wasteful subtractive manufacturing of machine tools. In contrast, in coming down from our oil high, as advocated by {Richard} Heinberg, we could regress to using whale oil for lighting, as was the case prior to commercial oil production. But this hardly constitutes progress, economic or environmental….

The real worry of Heinberg’s vision of a post-growth world is his straight-faced assertion that ‘there should be [an] increasing requirement for local production and manual labour’. This chilling claim is more Year Zero than zero growth. A return to carbohydrate-fuelled manual labour may be appealing to Heinberg and others as a means of powering down our lives and reconnecting with the land. But he shouldn’t expect a long queue of volunteers.

Maybe not- but he could well expect a long line of green ideologues who have forgotten that their green ideas are only possible because of the benefits brought by the very techno-industrialism that they campaign against.

Science and the Greens

A couple of recent posts continued with the theme I have been writing about in my last few posts, the awkward relationship between environmentalism and science.

Adam Corner and Alice Bell, writing for the New Left Project pick up on the Genetic Engineering/Nuclear issues that have been highlighted so effectively by “Chernobyl-Death-deniers” Mark Lynas and George Monbiot, but appear to add little to the debate, making the usual abstract remarks about the power context in which science takes place, while apparently unaware of the power-context within which environmentalism has emerged.

They stray into dubious territory right from the start when claiming that the Greens have always had a strong affinity with science, and that Green activism is actually rooted in science, evoking Rachel Carson and Julian Huxley:

Like the biologist Julian Huxley’s role in the founding of the WWF the year before, Silent Spring is endemic of the way science’s ability to look carefully at the natural world alerts us to the negative impacts humans have had on  it. To borrow a phrase from sociologist Steven Yearley, there is “elective affinity” between science and the greens, though as Yearley himself would be keen to stress, this doesn’t mean it’s a simple relationship.

Although Carson was right about some things, and played an important role in raising awareness about environmental impacts of farming, she over-egged the pudding and exaggerated on many issues, going well beyond the evidence, and these exaggerations arguably were responsible for chemophobia and radiophobia and the legacy of general alarmism and disregard for the facts -the very subject under discussion.

Julian Huxely is also surely a very bad example, since he was a champion of the then-fashionable “science” of eugenics and set the tone for much environmental thinking since with his concern about over-population, a political stance that is traditionally associated with the Right, not the Left. (For reading on this, see Fred Pearce, PeopleQuake 2010.) (more…)

Skeptics, Alarmists- it all comes back to the Left and the Right

I had an interesting exchange on Twitter with Keith Kloor yesterday after taking him to task for his post comparing anti-GMO activists with climate skeptics.

Actually, I was focusing on the “denialism” word, missing that his use of the word “skeptic” in the title- GMO Opponents Are the Climate Skeptics of the Left- was just as misleading and in fact a contradiction, as I will explain…

Keith responded straight away to the post:

and when I quoted back to him from his own article he replied:

Now I have to say this seems a little disingenuous. The case I am making is that “denialism” is a politically loaded word that needs to be used with great care; if it is not defined, it is really just a way of marginalizing anyone you don’t agree with. Of course I am not trying to ban the word, of course it has general meanings and is used in other contexts; but Keith has used it here, in this context of climate change, apparently approving of outlets such as Mother Jones and Grist who use it regularly to… well, it would seem to me, to marginalize opposing political views. Keith is surely not using the word “denialism” merely descriptively without being aware of how it is used by the people he is talking about; he is using it because he agrees with this usage. (more…)

Greens are Just as anti-Science on Climate as on GE

Update: Keith Kloor has just told me on Twitter that he has also been critical of the term “denier” as he discusses on this post.- which certainly shows he is aware of the issues I am raising here; however, he does indeed use the term “denialism” in the post on Seralini, without any indication of what he is actually referring to, and thus seems to fall into exactly the same traps.

The anti-science tendencies and frequently evidence-free stance of the Green movement finds a recent major example with the publication last week of Seralini’s GE-corn/roundup-fed rat trial, complete with garish photos of rats puffed up with tumors, which is being used to create wide-spread fear and panic about the safety of eating genetically engineered food.

John Vidal in the Guardian provides an egregious example of defending the indefensible, for example defending Seralini for winning his libel case against Fellous, president of the French Association of Plant Biotechnology, who suggested Seralini might be biased by his funding sources; but then casually throws in his own equivalent slur – of guilt by association- with the comment that UC Davis “has close links to Monsanto and other GM companies” while providing no evidence whatsoever that this would in any way, or has in any way influenced the impartiality or compromised the integrity of the the biotech scientists working there.

(For the response of a public scientist to charges of “shill for Monsanto” read Kevin Folta’s superb piece here.)

There has been a vigorous response from scientists and bloggers condemning the study as hopelessly flawed. There were not enough subjects in the control groups. Not all the data was published (and there is, rather unusually, a petition of scientists calling for the release of same); there appears to be no statistical significance to the data we do have showing any meaningful difference between the groups, with some of the controls having a higher incidence of tumors than the test groups; and mysteriously, there appears to be no distinction between high-and low-dose groups of either the corn or Roundup, which the rats were also tested for (an appears to have the same effects), defying the basic premise of toxicology that it is all in the dose. The Sprague-Dawley rats used are well-known to be prone to developing cancer anyway after the (very long period for a rat) of 2 years.

In my opinion, the methods, stats and reporting of results are all well below the standard I would expect in a rigorous study – to be honest I am surprised it was accepted for publication.

opined Prof David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor of the Public Understanding Of Risk, University of Cambridge.

More damning still, the Statistical Laboratory at the University of Cambridge note:

I am grateful for the authors for publishing this paper, as it provides a fine case study for teaching a statistics class about poor design, analysis and reporting. I shall start using it immediately.

There is another even more startling point here as well, raised by @mem-somerville and taken up by Worstall which is that all lab-rats in the US have been eating some RR GE-corn for over a decade because that is just what the feed happens to be, with no noticeable effects or difference with European lab-rats where GE corn is not grown.

Apart from these flaws and the condemnation of so many scientists, it is obvious that the Seralini study is a put-up job to discredit GE crops and manipulate the political process.Seralini heads CRIIGEN which is an anti-GE activist group, he has a history of controversial studies producing results that have not been replicated and fly in the face of hundreds of other GE safety studies; and one of the co-authors of the report and president of CRIIGEN , Dr Joël Spiroux de Vendomoisis, is a homeopath. (more…)

How the Light Gets In

Currently in Hay-on-Wye for the HowTheLightGetsIn Festival where it is constantly raining, not just rain but ideas, philosophy, politics, music, comedy and the most amazing beef and chicken pies.

A couple of interesting sessions yesterday, starting with a discussion between James Lovelock and Crispin Tickell.

These two venerable old-school scientists lamented the loss of scientific independence of the old days; Lovelock in particular looked back nostalgically to the old days when he was able to pursue his own interests without the constraints that today’s career scientists in large institutions are subject to. Tickell mentioned that he had once been to a talk by Rupert Sheldrake and how his theories of telepathy are not taken seriously for this reason: a rather bizarre point, ignoring the axiom that theories that are promoted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.

More bizarrely still Tickell in particular seemed to want to focus on the population issue, which he later referred to as “global swarming” and discussed the now discredited theories of eugenics: he acknowledged that it was misused by the Nazis but implied that we should take another look at it again. Lovelock also agreed that we are close to, or have exceeded, the number of people the planet can support; and while they were both aware that education and empowerment of women for example was a key issue in demographics, neither mentioned that fertility rates are declining everywhere, or the broader issue that “carrying capacity” has no absolute meaning for humans, it being dependent on the development of technology. Paul Ehrlich was invoked with reverence, as if anything Ehrlich says is worth paying a blind bit of notice to.

Lovelock did not discuss his recent change of heart on climate change and the fate of humanity but opined that, inspired by the very hot but thriving city of Singapore, we would do better to move to air-conditioned cities where we might survive quite well in a warmer world, and “leave Gaia to run the rest of the planet.” Indeed he seems to now think that it is sheer folly to think that humans can control the climate, and said that it would be better for us to do nothing least we make matters worse!

Tickell also joined a panel discussion later in the afternoon on the theme of The World in Our Hands, along with Nigel Lawson, Bjørn Lomborg, Polly Higgins, and chaired by Jonathan Derbyshire.

Polly Higgins is the barrister campaigning for te introduction of a new international law of eco-cide, allowing individuals- for example, the CEOs of large corporations- to be held to account for crimes against the planet.

The obvious problem with this approach becomes apparent with first glance at her website:

Polly Higgins is a lawyer who has dedicated her life to one client – the Earth.

This explicit elevation of the supposed concerns of the somewhat abstract concept of “the Earth” above those of, for example the needs of billions of humans who benefit from the exploitation of same- sidesteps the whole discussion, which is surely at the very least about how to reconcile the two- and even that pre-supposes that a planet is an entity which might actually be worthy of having legal representation.

Ben Pile has a closer look at Higgins’ here.

Higgins is adamant that the proposed law- which she has taken to the UN- is designed to be pre-emptive- “I don’t want to see anyone prosecuted.”

She also pointed out that there are already 10 countries that actually have an eco-cide law, including Kazhakistan and Bhutan- a point which Lomborg dismissed by asking “do we seriously want to be like those countries?” Lomborg says, we don’t burn fossil fuels just to annoy Al Gore, but obvioulsy becasue they are useful to us, and calls for a less polarized debate. He later asks Higgins- go back 30 years- would she say to the Chinese, you should not burn coal and therby bring 600million people out of poverty because of ecocide?

Higgins responds, it is all about creating a level playing field (as in some kind of cap-and-trade) and technology transfer: the Chinese are massively investing in renewables, while the West has not given clean energy the attention it deserves.

This is also ridiculed by Lomborg and Lawson: the Chinese get practically nothing from renewable energy themselves, but sell us solar panels “because they know we are mugs” (Lawson). Lawson claims that the temperature records show that the earth has not warmed the past 15 years, despite continuing increase in CO2 concentrations- a point strongly disputed by Tickell, who again invokes the population bug-a-bear, saying this is at least as much a problem as climate change. Lawson calls him “misinformed” and in fact Tickell does seem to concede the point, by arguing that the temperature is going up and down, the long-term trend is up- implying that he knows it will start to increase again soon.

Lawson says that scientists are divided on just how dangerous any putative warming might be, calling attempts to introduce international treaties to restrict CO2 emissions “absolute nonsense.” “Trying to stop the poor from burning fossil fuels to aid their development is the most immoral thing imaginable”. He said he had recently been discussing this with Freeman Dyson, who said that the only indisputable effect of CO2 is its beneficial impact on pant growth- all else is disputable and uncertain.

The packed audience did not give much away as to which side of this debate it favored- perhaps there should have been some sort of before-and-after voting. And as with all the sessions here at HTLGI there was only time allowed for a couple of questions afterwards. Neverthelss, it was a good discussion and interesting to see such diverse points of view as those expressed by Lomborg and Higgins represented on one platform.

I managed to grab a short interview with Bjorn Lomborg immediately afterwards:

Cool It!

I showed Lomborg’s film Cool It! to my students last week and was gratified that it received a small ripple of applause.

Directed by Ondi Timoner, the film is very much a response to Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth, and like that film also shows Lomborg giving a powerpoint presentation, which includes a slide of Gore shaking Lomborg’s hand, which he quips “must have been taken seconds before he realised who I was- as he is still smiling.”

No-one has any reason to be a fan of Al Gore and some of the mistakes and misrepresentations in An Inconvenient Truth are clearly exposed in Lomborg’s film:

-sea level rise is expected to be a couple of foot by the end of the century, not the 20mfeet that Gore suggests we should worry about if Greenland melts- an event not feasible for a millenium at least;

-Nairobi, which Gore claims was previously at too high an altitude to suffer malaria, has in fact had the disease since its foundation in 1899; malaria was also prevalent in much of Europe and North America, and is much more a function of poverty and resources than climate;

-Polar bears populations have been increasing in recent decades, and suffer much more from hunting than climate change; (see Ben Pile’s discussion of Polar bear population dynamics here.)

-Hurricane frequency- Gore uses Katrina as an example of why we should be scared of increased strength and damage caused by hurricanes- but Lomborg again shows that the tragedy of New Orleans was more political failures and our resilience to hurricane damage more a function of wealth, which both results in higher insurance pay-outs, and greater ability to prepare and withstand extreme weather events. (more…)

Power Hour: Please don’t turn the Lights Out

I meant to post something about Earth Hour last night when it took place, but ended up sharing dinner with friends- none of whom had heard of it, though its organisers claim it to be the “largest environmental event in history.”

Earth Hour was instigated five years ago by the World Wildlife Fund . The WWF state:

Hundreds of millions of people across the world – in a record 150 countries and territories – switched off their lights on Saturday night for WWF’s Earth Hour, the world’s biggest call-to-action for the protection of the planet.

But as Donna Laframboise explains, Earth Hour is not the result of a grassroots movement but was actually instigated by corporations:

Earth Hour was brought into this world by corporations
Launched in Sydney, Australia in 2007 there was never anything grassroots or shoestring about it. There’s no history of penniless activists toiling in obscurity, working their fingers to the bone, hoping against hope to attract attention to their cause.

Earth Hour is, instead, the brainchild of two large corporate entities – the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and Fairfax Media Limited.

WWF’s partners include Coca-Cola and IKEA- hardly the most likely bedfellows of environmentalists who yearn for a return to the simpler life of the pre-industrial, and rather dark, world before fossil fuels began to destroy the climate.

Now I’ve nothing against candle- lit dinners or acoustic music sessions, but as someone who lives off-grid and knows more than most in the developed world about electricity shortage, I really wonder what sort of message Earth Hour is supposed to convey.

I have no mains electricity, instead supplying power for my own lights and computer from 600watts of solar photvoltaic panels charging about 1000Ah battery storage. Through the long dark days of winter, when my demand for lighting is highest and the sun’s beneficence at its lowest, I largely rely on a back-up petrol generator. Not only was my limited solar system far more expensive than mains electricity- about EUR5000 to set up initially- but the amount of power I have available much of the time is tiny. In discussing renewable energy with students, I find it quite hard for people who have only ever experienced the convenience of the mains to understand what it means to live without it. Quite simply, not having power as as and when you need it is a severe limitation, and not one most people would choose I think to live with long-term.

In the developed world, Ireland was a relative late-comer, only completing its programme of rural electrification in the late 1970s, which “utterly transformed rural life in all its aspects – economic, social, and cultural.”

Sitting in darkness for an hour in springtime might feel like a nice way to show concern for the environment, but seems to achieve little in terms of actually reducing energy consumption. Activists who feel this is a worthwhile activity would perhaps do better to try turning the power out for, say, a whole week in the middle of winter, which might bring them a dose of much needed reality. (“Are you allowed to answer the phone during Earth Hour?” inquired my dinner hostess.)

Or perhaps, rather than continue to tolerate the profligate energy consumption of the western liberal democracies that have sired them, they might prefer to move to North Korea in solidarity with Gaia, where every hour is Earth Hour.

Electricity has surely been one of the greatest boons for improving human well-being, something which we in the West tend to take for granted, and electric light more than just a symbol of Enlightenment values. We need electricity both literally and symbolically to resist the reactionary forces that would see us return to Medieval superstitions.

The new documentary made for the powerdown/localisation movement Transition Towns, In Transition 2.0, while not linked directly to Earth Hour, extends the same theme with the soundtrack by Rebecca Mayes and her song “Turn the Lights Out”:

“we were friends in the rawest of ways
no machines, no technology in the way”.

In this interview with Rob Hopkins, Mayes explains the song as “a nostalgic look at childhood, a wish to return to some kind of simplicity”- sentiments that perhaps sum up much of what is deluded in the environmental movement.

I’m sure Mayes is a very nice person and a talented song-writer but this message seems more than a little naive, even dangerous. Nor should the glaring contradiction of using communications technology to record and promote a film that sneers at the very same technology be glossed over.

As an environmental message, Earth Hour is worse than an empty gesture; electricity should be celebrated as one of humanity’s crowning achievements. More appropriate might be a candle-lit vigil, not as “fighting climate change” or some romantic yearning for childhood innocence, but in solidarity with the 2 billion people on the planet who still don’t have access to it. Maybe the corporations behind Earth Hour should re-brand the event as Power Hour, and campaign for the wealthy nations to help extend this most basic foundation of civilisation to everyone.

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