The Perils of Prediction

A couple of weeks ago The Royal Society published a major new report called People and the Planet(pdf),which has drawn a lot of criticism for its apparent commitment to outdated “Limits to Growth” type thinking.

Who can know the future?

As Tim Worstall points out, while there is much to merit in the nuanced analysis of the main report, in the actual discussions of what we should do about both consumption and population,

it appears that we really are running out of “reserves” and that we should hand out condoms to all and sundry. That last isn’t all that surprising, as Jonathan Porritt is part of the team and he’s incapable of saying anything else on the subject.

Indeed, Porritt is not of course a scientist at all, more an activist, and his presence here which does in itself raise serious questions about the integrity of the study, if it means that the science is being mixed up with ideological interpretations and policy recommendations.

Similarly, Mark Lynas argues

Whilst using a lot of dark language about increasing numbers of humans globally, the report nowhere acknowledges that the current median level of total worldwide fertility has fallen dramatically from 5.6 in the 1970s to only 2.4 today. In other words we are already close to natural replacement levels in terms of total fertility – the reason that the absolute population will continue to grow to 9 billion or more is that more children are living long enough have their own children. To my mind a reduction in infant mortality and an increase in life expectancy are self-evidently good and desirable – and their impact on world population levels should be celebrated, not bemoaned.

Lynas goes onto to explain that the main failing of neo-Malthussianism is that it assumes resource consumption is a “zero-sum game”- that there is a finite pie to be shared by an expanding population, with only one possible outcome- not enough pie to go around. While this might be true in an absolute sense, it ignores technological developments which allow economic growth – “qualitative” rather than just “quantitative” growth to continue even as per capita, and ultimately even total impacts may plateau and even decline.

Chris Goodall at Carbon Commentary picks up on this theme by arguing that more resource consumption and growth need not necessarily result in greater impact. He uses the example of waste and rubbish:

Waste production per person in the UK peaked at around 520 kg a year in the year to March 2002. The latest two quarters figures are fifteen per cent below that level. The latest quarterly figures suggest a figure of about 443 kg. The decline from year to year isn’t smooth but is probably getting steeper.

As societies get richer, they become smarter, more eco-conscious and generally have a tendency to clean up our act. Goodall wryly continues

In contrast to what the Royal Society says, growth may be good for the environment. We waste less and are prepared to devote more cash to ecological protection. Technology improvements mean things last longer and use fewer physical resources to make. Regretfully, I have to say that the world’s most prestigious scientific institution should spend more time checking its facts.

Read the full post »

Wake Up and Smell the Dino Farts!

Most of us have probably heard about cows producing methane as a potent greenhouse gas, which apparently could be roughly equivalent to emissions from driving a car for each cow. A recent paper suggests that methane produced by dinosaur flatulence over 150million years ago could have contributed to a massive temperature increase- average
global temperatures are estimated to have been some 18degrees C higher than today.

With the abject failure of Kyoto-style emissions reductions and increases of coal burning not just in fast-developing China and India, but in post-nuclear Germany and Japan as well, and now new French president Hollande also rolling back on nuclear it might give us pause for thought that, if the worst fears for man-made global warming are true, we may be heading the same way as our over-sized reptilian ancestors.

@ChairmanAl put it succinctly in a tweet that had me chortling for quite a while:

So no UK nuke, less wind,less solar, CCS forever expensive, gas power GHG grandfathered for 40years. Wake up and smell the dino farts folks!

On Fracking

I attended an interesting presentation on “fracking”- hydraulic gas extraction- in UCC last week given by David Manz from Canada on the subject of “Gas Well Fracturing (Fracking)- Corporate Social Responsibility and Shared Value.”

Manz has been involved in developing the Biosand Water Filter (BSF) in more than 65 countries around the world and also in the treatment of so-called “produced water” from the shale gas fracking industry. This is water that returns from the gas wells after being pumped down with sand under pressure  to open up small fractures in the shale rock which allows the gas to be released.

This was an interesting talk and I am just putting up a few notes of interest that I talk during it.

Manz gave the opinion that the chemicals that are pumped down with the water in the first place- which include lubricants etc- do not pose any particular environmental problem (despite claims to the opposite from the anti-fracking lobby)- they are generally chemicals that are commonly used in many industrial activities and do not in themselves pose special environmental hazards. The water that returns from the well is however often seriously contaminated, with drilling mud and some of the gas itself- hence his operation to clean it up.

This is generally done on-site. The water is stored in lined holding and settling ponds right next to the well-heads; various technologies including different filtration systems and membrane systems are used to clean and recycle the water. The gas wells themselves provide all the energy used in the treatment process.

One interesting point he mentioned was that the actual gas itself varies in its make up from well to well, and you do not know what you are getting precisely until it emerges. Sometimes other products including ethanol can be separated from the natural gas, and, surprisingly, these products can sometimes be more valuable than the gas itself.

It was also impressive at how relatively small the footprint of a well-head can be, and that once the gas is extracted after several years, how well the area can be restored.

Fracking takes a lot of water- anything from 1-10million gallons per well- but this is still relatively little water compared to many other industrial users.

Multiple horizontal wells from a single well-head are the key to the recent success of fracking in North America, which makes the drilling operations both much more economic and much less of an impact.

Manz pointed out that the regulatory authorities need to require high-quality treatment practices- otherwise the companies will take the cheapest route out- but also emphasized that it is really not in the companies’ interest to cause pollution or environmental damage more than is strictly necessary, and pointed to the commitment made by Tamboran, the company applying for a license to prospect for shale gas in Leitrim, to “monitor groundwater quality, air quality, noise emissions, and seismic activity before, during, and periodically after all of its well site operations” as well as abide by other regulations. Tamboran claim that they will employ slick water techniques that involve no chemicals in the water.

I asked him how much gas there was in North America- we hear claims of “100 years’ supply” while some peak-oilers claim this is just hype and it will be gone in not much more than five years.
Manz was clear that there is a lot of gas there, and not all of it has yet been found- “at least 50 years supply, maybe 100years.”

Asked about his views on the prospect in Leitrim, Manz was thoughtful He had driven through the area in Leitrim several times himself, and said revealingly that fracking operations there “would be highly disruptive- to say the least”- Leitrim, where 100 acres is a large farm, is not Calgary, Canada, where farm holdings may be measured in the square miles. Nor are there wide freeways to accommodate the hundreds of trucks carrying water and heavy equipment to the well-head. However, if a careful consultation process is engaged with and all the implications looked at, with an absolute requirement from the outset of complete transparency, then “the benefits- of jobs and cheap energy- could be huge.”

Fracking is sure to continue t be controversial, and the potential impact on small communities and the environment in lovely Leitrim may be considered too high a price to pay. But with the UK Environment Agency coming out in favour of fracking over there this week the pressure for Ireland to look at exploiting this valuable resource is likely to grow, particularly if the alternative is economic stagnation, unemployment and ever higher energy costs.

Cereal Killers

Activists from the group Take the Flour Back are planning to destroy a trial plot of genetically engineered wheat at the Rothamsted research center in the UK. Apparently there is nothing anyone can do to stop this- short of a counter-demonstration of Science Defenders, or Defenders of the Enlightenment perhaps, going there to confront the activists (which at least one Tweeter has suggested)- so the scientists have put out an appeal to the protesters which can be viewed here.

The wheat has been developed to mimic natural plant defenses by producing high levels of an aphid repelling odour, which could help promote sustainable and environmentally friendly agriculture by reducing the need for pesticides.

The activists are concerned that there could be contamination of other crops from the wheat, which is wind-pollinated; the scientists say they have taken extraordinary precautions to avoid this. However, although caution is a good idea for any new variety, the concern seems misplaced: essentially GE crops are no different from other varieties bred using traditional methods. Like the GE potato trials proposed for Ireland, these are trials- if scientists are prevented from doing their research, how can we know what risks, if any, there may be? But as also with the potato trials, the main objection seems to be protectionism: there is no more reason for “contamination” from GE crops, should it happen, to be more of a problem than conventionally bred crops- unless you have an arbitrary system called “organics” which has decided to ban that particular method of plant breeding.

“There is no market for GM wheat anywhere in the world” they claim- a meaningless statement. GE wheat is at the end of the day, just wheat- and there is surely a market for that. Most of the world is pressing ahead a-pace with GE technology as a useful tool for producing safe food with less environmental impacts, while Europe takes a more isolationist approach which will likely cost it dearly in the long run.

The world desperately needs biotech to help produce crops with less environmental impact. Unless you want to see policy decided by anti-democratic actions as planned for May 27th, and see farmers progressively lose the battle against pests and disease, please sign the petition here and add your name to the 2000+ who are showing their support for science and research.

“I Can change your Mind”

Just watched the interesting Australian TV show I Can Change Your Mind About…Climate.

The show takes a novel format of taking two protagonists from either side of the climate debate and flying them around the world as they introduce to each other spokespeople for their respective causes.

The climate activist is Anna Rose, founder and chair of the Australian Youth Climate Coalition, and her travel companion is Nick Minchin, recently retired Australian senator. Read the full post »

Cool It!

I showed Lomborg’s film Cool It! to my students last week and was gratified that it received a small ripple of applause.

Directed by Ondi Timoner, the film is very much a response to Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth, and like that film also shows Lomborg giving a powerpoint presentation, which includes a slide of Gore shaking Lomborg’s hand, which he quips “must have been taken seconds before he realised who I was- as he is still smiling.”

No-one has any reason to be a fan of Al Gore and some of the mistakes and misrepresentations in An Inconvenient Truth are clearly exposed in Lomborg’s film:

-sea level rise is expected to be a couple of foot by the end of the century, not the 20mfeet that Gore suggests we should worry about if Greenland melts- an event not feasible for a millenium at least;

-Nairobi, which Gore claims was previously at too high an altitude to suffer malaria, has in fact had the disease since its foundation in 1899; malaria was also prevalent in much of Europe and North America, and is much more a function of poverty and resources than climate;

-Polar bears populations have been increasing in recent decades, and suffer much more from hunting than climate change; (see Ben Pile’s discussion of Polar bear population dynamics here.)

-Hurricane frequency- Gore uses Katrina as an example of why we should be scared of increased strength and damage caused by hurricanes- but Lomborg again shows that the tragedy of New Orleans was more political failures and our resilience to hurricane damage more a function of wealth, which both results in higher insurance pay-outs, and greater ability to prepare and withstand extreme weather events. Read the full post »

The Trads and the Mods

Interesting post by Kieth Kloor on the split between traditionalists and modernists in the environmental movement:

If there is a path to a more realistic, hopeful future, the green traditionalist has not advanced it. Getting back to the land was great hippy fun in the 1960s and 1970s. Inveighing against modern civilization and retreating into an artificial wilderness congealed in the 1980s and 1990s. Since then, green chic has been riddled with contradictions and ascetic deprivation has still been found wanting.

Despite his broken-record messaging and inexorable slide into irrelevancy, the green traditionalist remains stubbornly resistant to new approaches. Like the ineffective parent, he keeps yelling, thinking his kids will eventually listen. As any parent will tell you, that’s never worked.

Enter the post-environmental, green modernist. Pro-technology, pro-city, pro-growth, the green modernist has emerged in recent years to advance an alternative vision for the future. His mission is to remake environmentalism: Strip it of outdated mythologies and dogmas, make it less apocalyptic and more optimistic, broaden its constituency. In this vision, the Anthropocene is not something to rail against, but to embrace. It is about welcoming that world, not dreading it. It is about creating a future that environmentalists will help shape for the better.

In my experience the “romantic” green is still prevalent. My own field, permaculture, is riddled with it. This is a great shame because some techniques in permaculture really are useful, and are being adopted in conventional farming and land-use as well, including swales for water retention and soil protection, no-dig and low-till methods. The problem is that the romantic side of environmentalism is underpinned by an essentially religious ideology complete with guilt, advocacy of personal sacrifice and apocalyptic visions of doom. Read the full post »

Power Hour: Please don’t turn the Lights Out

I meant to post something about Earth Hour last night when it took place, but ended up sharing dinner with friends- none of whom had heard of it, though its organisers claim it to be the “largest environmental event in history.”

Earth Hour was instigated five years ago by the World Wildlife Fund . The WWF state:

Hundreds of millions of people across the world – in a record 150 countries and territories – switched off their lights on Saturday night for WWF’s Earth Hour, the world’s biggest call-to-action for the protection of the planet.

But as Donna Laframboise explains, Earth Hour is not the result of a grassroots movement but was actually instigated by corporations:

Earth Hour was brought into this world by corporations
Launched in Sydney, Australia in 2007 there was never anything grassroots or shoestring about it. There’s no history of penniless activists toiling in obscurity, working their fingers to the bone, hoping against hope to attract attention to their cause.

Earth Hour is, instead, the brainchild of two large corporate entities – the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and Fairfax Media Limited.

WWF’s partners include Coca-Cola and IKEA- hardly the most likely bedfellows of environmentalists who yearn for a return to the simpler life of the pre-industrial, and rather dark, world before fossil fuels began to destroy the climate.

Now I’ve nothing against candle- lit dinners or acoustic music sessions, but as someone who lives off-grid and knows more than most in the developed world about electricity shortage, I really wonder what sort of message Earth Hour is supposed to convey.

I have no mains electricity, instead supplying power for my own lights and computer from 600watts of solar photvoltaic panels charging about 1000Ah battery storage. Through the long dark days of winter, when my demand for lighting is highest and the sun’s beneficence at its lowest, I largely rely on a back-up petrol generator. Not only was my limited solar system far more expensive than mains electricity- about EUR5000 to set up initially- but the amount of power I have available much of the time is tiny. In discussing renewable energy with students, I find it quite hard for people who have only ever experienced the convenience of the mains to understand what it means to live without it. Quite simply, not having power as as and when you need it is a severe limitation, and not one most people would choose I think to live with long-term.

In the developed world, Ireland was a relative late-comer, only completing its programme of rural electrification in the late 1970s, which “utterly transformed rural life in all its aspects – economic, social, and cultural.”

Sitting in darkness for an hour in springtime might feel like a nice way to show concern for the environment, but seems to achieve little in terms of actually reducing energy consumption. Activists who feel this is a worthwhile activity would perhaps do better to try turning the power out for, say, a whole week in the middle of winter, which might bring them a dose of much needed reality. (“Are you allowed to answer the phone during Earth Hour?” inquired my dinner hostess.)

Or perhaps, rather than continue to tolerate the profligate energy consumption of the western liberal democracies that have sired them, they might prefer to move to North Korea in solidarity with Gaia, where every hour is Earth Hour.

Electricity has surely been one of the greatest boons for improving human well-being, something which we in the West tend to take for granted, and electric light more than just a symbol of Enlightenment values. We need electricity both literally and symbolically to resist the reactionary forces that would see us return to Medieval superstitions.

The new documentary made for the powerdown/localisation movement Transition Towns, In Transition 2.0, while not linked directly to Earth Hour, extends the same theme with the soundtrack by Rebecca Mayes and her song “Turn the Lights Out”:

“we were friends in the rawest of ways
no machines, no technology in the way”.

In this interview with Rob Hopkins, Mayes explains the song as “a nostalgic look at childhood, a wish to return to some kind of simplicity”- sentiments that perhaps sum up much of what is deluded in the environmental movement.

I’m sure Mayes is a very nice person and a talented song-writer but this message seems more than a little naive, even dangerous. Nor should the glaring contradiction of using communications technology to record and promote a film that sneers at the very same technology be glossed over.

As an environmental message, Earth Hour is worse than an empty gesture; electricity should be celebrated as one of humanity’s crowning achievements. More appropriate might be a candle-lit vigil, not as “fighting climate change” or some romantic yearning for childhood innocence, but in solidarity with the 2 billion people on the planet who still don’t have access to it. Maybe the corporations behind Earth Hour should re-brand the event as Power Hour, and campaign for the wealthy nations to help extend this most basic foundation of civilisation to everyone.

GMO activists IOFGA jump the gun

Good article in the Guardian yesterday by Eoin Lettice from the School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences at University College Cork, on Why Ireland needs to test GM potatoes.

A major new European Union study is set to examine the effects of growing genetically modified, blight-resistant potato plants on biodiversity and the environment in agricultural ecosystems. It will also see the first GM crops being grown in Ireland since the late 1990s.

In a statement issued last month, Teagasc (the Irish agricultural development agency) announced it is seeking a licence to carry out field trials of GM potatoes as part of the AMIGA consortium – a group including representatives of research bodies from 15 EU countries.

Lettice makes the very good point that in setting up these trials Teagasc is only doing the job it was set up to do:

Teagasc is Ireland’s agriculture and food development agency. Its role is to carry out research leading to a better understanding of agriculture and new agronomic techniques. To accuse such a body of “wasting” money by doing the very thing it was set up to do is ridiculous.

Indeed, if trials to see the biological impact of these crops are not permitted, how can we gather information about whether the crop is safe or not? It would appear the activists are ahead of themselves, assuming risks while trying to ban trials that would provide the evidence either way.

Lettice says that IOFGA have also jumped the gun- in a statement released last week they claim Teagasc will be wasting tax-payers money- although the trials will be paid for entirely through EU’s FP7 research programme – a €50bn fund earmarked for research and technological development. “There is no question of further money coming from Irish taxpayers.”

This will make little difference to the activists in the Organic lobby. As one of the commentators below the article notes, “You are dealing with a religion here and you can’t fight religion with facts.”

Can religion help us solve climate change?

After the interesting the debate with @DarkOptimism on doomerism a couple of posts ago, I was intrigued to see him tweeting a link to the latest BigIssue which carries an article by Adam Forrest called Climate Change: A Matter of Faith and asks the question, Can Science and religion work together to save us from ourselves? (pdf download here.)

Many climate skeptics and environmental critics have long felt that these movements are best seen as religious ideologies rather than being based on objective science; but while these charges are normally dismissed as absurd conspiracy theories, here we have an example of activists who not only freely admit to a religious dimension to their cause, but actually advocate the deliberate creation or invention of religious ideas in order to motivate the kind of change they want to see. (Simon Fairlie provides another example of this approach here.)

All the peer-reviewed studies and strategies of persuasion known to Green PR have failed to fundamentally alter the way we live… the green prophets in the persuasion business do not have an easy task

So why has the green movement failed in its stated task of fundamentally changing the way we live? The article, which references Transition Towns and the Dark Mountain Project as guides to a Post-Collapse Society, goes on to quote Stefan Skrimshire, who specializes in Theology and Climate change at Leeds University, who asks:

How do you get people to believe in the end of civilisation enough to make them hopeful and proactive enough to help forestall disaster?

Hmm difficult question that one. What is odd- or perhaps predictable- about the whole article is that it is based on an absolute presumption, total conviction, that we are facing the collapse of civilisation, and the fact that most people and society at large is snoring is a result of some kind of denial, or the usual human frailties of greed and selfishness. Alistair McIntosh, author of Hell and High Water, points to traditional narratives of doom going back to biblical times, but draws completely the wrong conclusion:

The metaphysical matters, for without it we miss the whole picture…I would like to see the use of [science] tempered with some of the wisdom the pre-modern world possessed.

There are so many garbled ideas and messages contained here that it is hard to find one’s way through. Science is not about telling stories, but about considering the evidence. The Grand Narrative of Environmental Doom being proposed here is laden with the Guilt of Original Sin and Revenge Fantasies. The problem is, environmentalists of this ilk do not value the gains of the modern world, and imagine a romantic past that never existed. There was wisdom of a sort in traditional cultures, but it was not a sort of wisdom that will do us any good now- and the last thing we need is to be dragged back into a superstitious Dark Age.

The reality is, humans have used their innovations and technologies to drag themselves out of the extreme hardships that Nature bequeathed them, and that this has certainly exacted a cost to the environment- but by and large it has been worth it because the past was in fact so terrible. Those who yearn for some kind of idyllic simple life in the stone-age should remember that life expectancy was pitifully short and infant mortality was generally very high.

The way to address environmental problems is to embrace technology and innovation. Simply developing cars with higher mileage, for example, will have a far, far bigger beneficial impact than any amount of “lifestyle change” simply because the kind of lifestyle changes Greens like to proselytize about, were they to actually mean anything in reducing environmental impact, equate to poverty. And poverty in the here and now is far, far worse than some vague and abstract notion about climate change sometime in our grandchildren’s time.

“It is, inevitably a spiritual change and we will be more and more pushed to think about these things.” muses McIntosh. “It’s bigger than anything we’ve ever faced before and we are going to have to strengthen our personal resilience.”

How can climate change sometime in the future, the effects of which are highly uncertain, our ability to adapt largely dependent on wealth and technology (not to dismiss community and “resilience”- those things are important as well) possibly be bigger than anything “we” (humanity? White Western Males with University tenures?) have ever faced before?

When, as an angst-riven teenager just becoming influenced by such post-modern ideas complained to my parents about how awful things were getting in the world some 30 years ago, I was reminded that they had grown up during a World War. I had no concept of what that must have been like. But if WW1 and 2 do not suffice, how about the Black Death? That must have been pretty bad, when some 30-60% of the population of Europe was wiped out in the space of a few years.

There have been hundreds of other plagues, famines, natural disasters and wars throughout history, but science, progress, development and technology have allowed us to mitigate many of the worst effects for much of the world. Not, of course enough- there is still 2billion too many in poverty; we are not going to help them by hand-wringing about how awfully materialistic we have become. Materialism is the result of our incredible success, and with it we have developed liberal values of the Enlightenment, democracy and, hey, we may even be becoming less violent.

Instead of celebrating these astonishing gains, and the fact that we are here to witness them, these noble Green Theologians believe that if they only tell Joe Public the right Story that we will all See the Light and mend our evil ways. Unfortunately, as another ancient myth, that of Pandora’s Box, tells us, there is no going back, we can only continue on our path of progress, and for that we should be surely thankful.

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